In a dense city such as Amsterdam, where the use of space is highly competitive, we need to use our roofs in the most effective way to provide for a large part of the city's energy demand. In 2022, the total energy (heat and electricity) demand of the city was over 50 Petajoule (PJ) (or 13.9 Terawatt hour (TWh)). This research highlights how we currently utilize Amsterdam's roofs and how we can use them to improve useful energy generation to move toward climate neutrality. The research highlights:
- The latest data of the successful adoption of rooftop solar panels in Amsterdam, while indicating 'hot and cold' adoption spots in the city;
- The significant remaining potential of rooftops for solar energy in Amsterdam;
- Opportunities to maximize solar energy for heat generation as part of a sustainable heating system for the built environment.
The findings are from the Simply Positive project, an international research project, with Dutch partners: AMS Institute, TU Delft, and PV Works, with additional insights coming from Wageningen University and Research (WUR).
Solar panels in Amsterdam: on the right track!
Amsterdam is on track to meet its 2030 target of 550 Megawatt (MW) of installed capacity of solar panels—or photovoltaics (PV)—for electricity generation from solar energy, supported by the city's 'no roof unused' policy. The latest data collection shows that there is currently 315 MW installed PV capacity in Amsterdam. In addition, the research reveals that the city has the potential to install (and therefore generate) even more.
Our new calculations show that the full potential of rooftop solar panels could provide the city with an energy output of over 6.9 PJ annually, equivalent to near half of Amsterdam’s total electricity demand!
With the foreseen uptake of EV chargers, electric heating and cooling, and electrified business processes, solar energy will be highly valuable when adopted in dense urban areas after the Dutch government abandons current net metering schemes.
How well is your neighborhood doing?
Despite the potential of Amsterdam’s rooftops, adoption rates of solar panels in certain districts still need to improve. You can find the relative adoption performance of your neighborhood compared to the calculated potential on an interactive map here.
When diving deeper into the data, the research reveals limited adoption in multi-story and historic buildings, where shared ownership and heritage restrictions are barriers to installation. Interesting in the figure below are the pink and light blue neighborhoods, where the neighborhoods are adopting more or less compared to their surrounding neighborhoods. Areas with high-low adoption could highlight localized successes worth scaling, while low-high areas may indicate specific barriers that need to be resolved. The full results of this study will be published in 2025.
This map highlights the 'hot and cold' spots for solar panel adoption in the city. (The non-weighted spatial autocorrelation of the distribution of PV until 2024 across the city districts)
“The spatial patterns observed based on the data suggest that the distribution of PV installations is not random, it is clustered and heavily influenced by urban structure, socioeconomic conditions, and local policies”
Erkinai Derkenbaeva
Postdoc at WUR and AMS Research Fellow
Heat, not only electricity, from your roof
The researchers note that solar energy can play an even more critical role in climate neutrality. In addition to generating electricity, multipurpose systems like PVTs (Photovoltaic Thermal Systems) can play a crucial role in urban heating, aiding the city's transition from natural gas. By installing PVTs instead of traditional PVs, rooftops can contribute more efficiently to both electricity and heat production, optimizing the limited space available in dense urban environments.
This visuals shows that with PV and PVT panels, the generating potential of Amsterdam’s rooftop can account for nearly 40% of the cities total energy consumption.
“Of course, next to wind and solar, various (seasonal) energy storage systems need to be installed to effectively use this potential sustainable energy to meet the heat demand in winter. But as the realization of seasonal thermal storage is popular in Amsterdam, making the most effective use of the roofs can be an effective strategy for cities that lack space”
Paul Voskuilen
Program Developer Urban Energy
Combatting dominant uncertainties about solar panels
The researchers also note that two uncertainties may be holding back solar panel uptake: that solar electricity will no longer be cost-effective post-2027 due to the end of net metering, and that solar electricity production peaks when demand is low.
The researchers note that these concerns are overstated—installations of solar panels will remain an economical choice, and increasing electrification, especially for vehicles, will increase the value of urban solar energy.
“Even beyond net metering policies, solar panels will remain cost-effective, while the growing demand for electrification, especially in transportation, ensures urban solar power's value peaks when it's needed most”
Olindo Isabella
Associate professor & AMS PI
What's next?
Key takeaways for policy:
- Continue investing in utilization of solar energy, especially in areas with lower adoption rates.
- Encourage sustained investments in solar panel installations across the city, particularly in low adoption areas, typically with multi-story and heritage buildings.
- Investigate the dual-purpose of solar electricity and heat systems for future policies.
- PVTs should be included in future energy policies to ensure a more comprehensive household energy shift, addressing both electricity and heating needs.
- Clarify the long-term cost savings of solar panels, even post-net metering.
- Although net metering will be phased out in 2027, utilization of solar energy can still offer cost savings for homeowners. Clear communication about long-term benefits and financial incentives will be key to maintain momentum.
- Plan for increasing electrification.
- Solar panels will play a crucial role in powering other aspects of urban life, such as electric vehicles. This presents an opportunity to align solar energy with other sustainable initiatives.
Amsterdam is committed to a future where every roof contributes to the city’s energy supply. While challenges remain, this research highlights that residents are willing to embrace solar power if given the right tools and support. By addressing barriers head-on, particularly in complex urban areas, the City can ensure that solar energy plays a central role in Amsterdam’s sustainable transformation.
This research is mainly focused on the amount of energy we could produce from Amsterdam's rooftops. AMS Institute is also actively galvanizing efforts towards circular solar panels in our Fair-PV project.
